Luwians vs. Hittites and Mycenaeans vs. Luwians

A rather imaginative reconstruction of the events surrounding the Sea Peoples and the ending of the end of the Bronze Age.

Estimating the date of composition of the Homeric epics

This might be an interesting way of dating literary works for which there are no/conflicting traditions about their date of composition.

Bioessays DOI: 10.1002/bies.201200165

Linguistic evidence supports date for Homeric epics

Eric Lewin Altschuler et al.

The Homeric epics are among the greatest masterpieces of literature, but when they were produced is not known with certainty. Here we apply evolutionary-linguistic phylogenetic statistical methods to differences in Homeric, Modern Greek and ancient Hittite vocabulary items to estimate a date of approximately 710–760 BCE for these great works. Our analysis compared a common set of vocabulary items among the three pairs of languages, recording for each item whether the words in the two languages were cognate – derived from a shared ancestral word – or not. We then used a likelihood-based Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure to estimate the most probable times in years separating these languages given the percentage of words they shared, combined with knowledge of the rates at which different words change. Our date for the epics is in close agreement with historians' and classicists' beliefs derived from historical and archaeological sources.

Link

Late Minoan IB destructions not followed by Mycenaean immigration

This is an important contribution which falsifies the theory that the destructions of the Minoan palaces associated with the Late Minoan IB involved the coming of Mycenaean elites to Crete, by using a combination of strontium isotope analysis (which captures first-generation migrants) and biodistance analysis (which reveals no pattern of greater affinity of post-LMIB populations to mainland Greek samples.

However, this is interesting:

Therefore these results suggest a gradual rounding of the cranial shape for the Central Cretan population in the course of the Bronze Age, resulting from the increase of the cranial breadth in relation to cranial length. They further provide negative evidence for a disruption of the biological history of the Knossos population following the LMIB destructions due to an increase in the biodistance between the samples dating immediately prior and following the destructions.  

The gradual rounding of the cranial shape of the Central Cretan population over the course of the Bronze Age and the very similar shape of the Gypsades, Sellopoulo and Mavrospelio crania can be more clearly appreciated by plotting the Cranial Index (100*maximum cranial breadth/glabello – occipital length) data. The Cranial Index describes the cranial shape and higher cranial indices reflect a more rounded cranium. In Figure 7, the Cranial Indices for all the above-mentioned Central Cretan population samples are plotted in chronological order, from the Early to Late Bronze Age. Cranial Indices were calculated separately for males and females from each sample.  

The gradual increase in Cranial Index over the Bronze Age most probably reflects gene-flow from population/s biologically different from the Early Bronze Age Cretan population and from inter-population biological interactions (admixture) in the succeeding periods. An alternative interpretation implicating the thermoregulatory model of Beals et al. (1984) and adaptation to colder climatic conditions carries less weight. 

This might be consistent with J. Lawrence Angel's detection of a "Dinaroid-Alpine central trend" of Bronze Age invaders of Greece, as well as the well-known contemporary physiognomy of the historical Hittites and the physical anthropological evidence for them:

Senyurek (1951d, pp. 614-15) concludes that "the majority of the Chalcolithic and Copper Age inhabitants of Anatolia were dolichocephals of mainly Eurafrican and Mediterranean types, and that the brachycephals, probably representing the invaders, were rare in these periods. This study has further supported the conclusion that the earliest inhabitants of Anatolia were longheaded, and that the brachycephals came in subsequently. "The craniological evidence indicates that an invasion of brachycephals into Anatolia took place during the Chalcolithic period and that it was followed by a second invasion, bringing in the brachycephalic elements to Alaca Huyuk and other Copper Age sites, probably at about the middle of the Copper Age. The next invasion of brachycephals, which was more important and extensive than the previous ones, occurred at about 2000 B.C. This was made by the Hittites who were predominantly of the classical Alpine type."  

While there does not appear to be specific evidence for a new population element arriving in Crete after the LMIB destructions, the pattern during the Bronze Age is probably consistent with an intrusive population.

If we accept that the European Neolithic island-hopped to Greece from the East and thence spread north and east into Europe, it is peculiar that ancient DNA from Neolithic Europeans is dominated by Y-haplogroups I2b and G2a (missing the dominant Anatolian J2 haplogroup) and by a "Mediterranean" autosomal makeup (missing the dominant Anatolian West_Asian component). As I have previously argued, this suggests a sea change in the genetic makeup of Anatolia itself since the early Neolithic, and a Bronze Age migration of J2/West_Asian brachycephals into Anatolia, mainland Greece and Crete would be one possible agent for that development.

Late Minoan IB destructions and cultural upheaval on Crete: A bioarchaeological perspective

Nafplioti, Argyro

This paper discusses representative results from strontium isotope ratio (87Sr/86Sr) and biodistance analyses of archaeological human skeletal material carried out to assess the validity of the theory of a LMIB (ca. 1490/1470 BC) Mycenaean invasion of Crete and imposed political domination of Knossos, and thus shed more light onto the question of the LMIB destructions and the subsequent cultural upheaval on the island. These analyses show that the people buried in post- LMIB tombs at Knossos, traditionally associated with Mycenaeans based on material culture evidence, were in fact born locally and not in the Argolid. Further, the analyses presented reject the possibility that these people may represent the descendants of immigrants from the latter region. Additional negative evidence for the theory tested comes from further cranial and dental morphological analyses presented in the author’s doctoral thesis, as well as the material culture itself, briefly discussed here.

Link

Homer and Archaeology

Related: Support for "large" Troy at the time of the Trojan War, Historicity of the Trojan War.

Hidden histories: 'The Odyssey' and 'The Iliad' are giving up new secrets about the ancient world By Jonathan Gottschall:

In the last 50 years, most scholars have sided with the great classicist Moses Finley, who argued that the epics were "a collection of fictions from beginning to end" and that - for all their majesty and drama - they were "no guide at all" to the civilization that may have fought the Trojan War.

...

But thanks to evidence from a range of disciplines, we are in the middle of a massive reappraisal of these foundational works of Western literature. Recent advances in archeology and linguistics offer the strongest support yet that the Trojan War did take place, with evidence coming from the large excavation at the likely site of Troy, as well as new analysis of cuneiform tablets from the dominant empire of the region.

...

In a project that has now been underway for 20 years, the German archeologist Manfred Korfmann and hundreds of collaborators have discovered a large lower city that surrounded the citadel. Using new tools, such as computer modeling and imaging technology that allows them to "see" into the earth before digging, Korfmann and his colleagues determined that this city's borders were 10 to 15 times larger than previously thought, and that it supported a population of 5,000 to 10,000 - a big city for its time and place, with impressive defenses and an underground water system for surviving sieges. And, critically, the city bore signs of being pillaged and burned around 1200 BC, precisely the time when the Trojan War would have been
fought.

In his influential book, "Troy and Homer," German classicist Joachim Latacz argues that the identification of Hisarlik as the site of Homer's Troy is all but proven. Latacz's case is based not only on archeology, but also on fascinating reassessments of cuneiform tablets from the Hittite imperial archives. The tablets, which are dated to the period when the Late Bronze Age city at Hisarlik was destroyed, tell a story of a western people harassing a Hittite client state on the coast of Asia Minor. The Hittite name for the invading foreigners
is very close to Homer's name for his Greeks - Achaians - and the Hittite names for their harassed ally are very close to "Troy" and "Ilios," Homer's names for the city.

"At the very core of the tale," Latacz argues, "Homer's 'Iliad' has
shed the mantle of fiction commonly attributed to it."

Nerik: Hittite holy city

Hittites' holy city Nerik to emerge

Late in the second millennium B.C., as the Hittites were experimenting with bronze, they built a holy city called Nerik near the Black Sea, according to evidence being slowly gathered by archeologists.

Today, excavators at the Oymaağaç mound in the Black Sea city of Samsun's Vezirköprü district are reveling in their potential find, believing the evidence is mounting and Oymaağaç will be unveiled as the holder of Nerik.

...

According to Zimmermann, the most prominent findings to date at the Oymaağaç dig, which started two years ago and was expected to finish in 10 years, were the fragments of cuneiform tablets. He said they were the northernmost written sources found in Hittite Anatolia. Also, he said they had found a number of bullae, which are lumps of clay molded around a cord and stamped with a seal to prevent tampering with the contents of a container, from the Hittite imperial period in the late second millennium.

ISABS 2007 abstracts

Quite a few interesting abstracts from last year's ISABS Conference (book of abstracts).

Y-CHROMOSOME DIVERSITY IN SOUTHERN URALS: A GEOGRAPHIC BORDER BETWEEN EUROPE AND ASIA

Khusnutdinova E. et al.

Turkic-speaking Bashkirs are dispersed throughout the southern Ural region. They are considered by historians as descendants of Turkic- speaking nomadic communities that arrived in southern Urals at Early Medieval ages and assimilated indigenous population. We performed phylogenetic analysis of Y-chromosome lineages in a sample of 587 Bashkirs drawn from different parts of the southern Ural region and neighbouring areas: Abzelilovskiy (N=152), Sterlibashevskiy (N=54), Baimakskiy (N=95), and Burzyanskiy (N=82) districts of Bashkortostan republic, Orenburg (N=79), Perm (N=72), Samara and Saratov (N=51) Oblasts of Russia. Obtained samples of Y-chromosomes were analyzed using 24 biallelic markers of the Y chromosome non-recombining region. A total of 17 haplogroups were identified among which R1b3-M269, R1a1- SRY 1532, and N3-M46 lineages were predominant. Since N3-M46 lineage is prevalent among neighbouring Finno- Ugric populations and is rarely found in Central Asia, where numerous Turkicspeaking confederations dominated over a long period ancestors of Finno-Ugric groups are probable source population that contributed N3 lineage into Bashkirs. Y- Chromosome lineages specific to Central and East Asian populations (C3c- M48, O-M175) were absent or found with very low overall frequency (less than 10%). The only exception is R1b2 lineage which was found with very high frequency among Transural Bashkirs. Overall prevalence of typical West Eurasian (R1a-SRY 1532 and R1b3- M269) and North Eurasian (N3) lineages imply that Turkic-speaking newcomers were either admixed or genetic input associated with their arrival was limited.

INTRA-ETHNIC VARIATION OF THE Y CHROMOSOME IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY

Balanovsky O et al.

To reveal degree of the regional Y chromosomal variation in Europe we compared our data on Russians (14 regional populations), Ukrainians (4 populations) and Belorussians (2 populations, and 2 populations from Behar et al., 2003) with the published regional data on other European countries. For reliable calculations neighbour populations were pooled to reach sample sizes above 70. To measure the intra-ethnic variation we calculated (i) the average genetic distance between regional populations of every group and (ii) Gst (Fst) variation. Gst value was considered as preferable measure, as it was found to be less sensitive to level of phylogenetic resolution in the data. Croatians, Finns, Russians and Italians were proved to be the most diverse (genetically subdivided) groups; Swedes and Germans demonstrated moderate variation; Greeks, Turks, Poles, Belorussians and Ukrainians were more genetically homogenous, showing lower geographic variation of the paternal lineages inside their countries. However, even lower variation of the Y chromosome is significantly higher as compared with analogous values calculated from mitochondrial DNA and autosomal data. This finding stresses that forensic studies may demand not only country-specific, but provincespecific databases (at least for listed above highly genetically subdivided countries), since haplogroup profiles differ significantly from one province to another, inside the same country. Despite the high intra-ethnic variation (Gst=0.03 on average), the inter-ethnic differences were five times higher (Gst=0.15), revealing dominance of inter-ethnic variation in structuring the paternal gene pool in Europe.

PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF Y-CHROMOSOMAL LINEAGES IN NORTH EURASIA

Stepanov V et al.

Aim of the study was to reconstruct the evolution of paternal lineages in populations of Siberia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Forty population samples from 22 ethnic groups were studied. Totally 1600 Y chromosomes were genotyped for 40 biallelic markers according to Y chromosome consortium (YCC) classification. The microsatellite haplotypes within HG were constructed using 7 STR loci. Thirty one haplogroups were observed, but frequencies of only 7 of them (N3a, R1a1, Q*, C3xC3c, N2, C3c, O3) were higher than 3 percent. In sum these 7 haplogroups comprise 86% of Y-chromosomal gene pool in North Eurasia. The proportion of inter- population differences in the total genetic variability of region's population according to the analysis of molecular variance is 19%. Analysis of genetic relationships between populations reveals three main clusters of populations in space of two first PCs reflecting the differential presence of ancient West-Eurasian Caucasoid, Proto-Uralic and Paleoasiatic components. Based on analysis of microsatellite haplotypes within main Y- chromosomal haplogroups, molecular diversity within monophyletic lineages were calculated and phylogenetic trees for most common haplogroups were reconstructed. Western-Eurasian lineages (R1a1, R1b) are characterized by the maximal diversity in Eastern European populations. Eastern-Eurasian lineages have the high level of diversity in populations of Eastern Siberia and North-East Asia. The age of genetic diversity generation and time of population differentiation (Td) shows that most lineages which are common in North Eurasian populations dated back to Upper Paleolithic period before the last glacial maximum.

THE MITOCHONDRIAL DNA POLYMORPHISM IN UKRAINIAN POPULATION

Grechanina EY et al.

Study of mtDNA polymorphism for estimation genetic diversity of Ukrainian population. There are 239 samples of Ukrainians from different regions of Ukraine. There are sequention of hypervariable segment HVS I in combination with RFLPanalysis of coding sites of mtDNA and phylogeographical analysis. This research was in Estonian Biocenter. Length of sequencing fragment was 377 bp 102 positions from 377 were polymorphic. From these 91 nucleotide substitutions are transitions, with prevalence pyrimidine under purine (69:22). Transversions were in 11 sites. Were determined 157 haplotypes. The most common haplotype (10.0%) corresponds to CRS. Indexes of genetic diversity for Ukrainian population are H=0.986 and Di=5.19. Screening of polymorphic sites established following haplogroups of mtDNA, which have all-European spreading: H-33.5%, V-5.4%, HV-3.7%, J- 11.7%, T-6.7%, U-20.9% (U2, U3, U4, U5, U7, U8), K-2.9%, I-2.1%, W- 2.1%, X-2.5%. Subhaplogroup U3 (2.5%) may testify the presence Iranian component. Subhaplogroup U4 was detected with frequency 3.7%. Subhaplogroup U5 has maximal frequency in Scandinavian people also was detected in Ukrainian population with high frequency 10.8%. Haplogroup V, as marker of Finnish-Hungarian people, has high frequency in Ukrainian population. There were found Asian lines (A, B, C, D, Z) with frequency 2.0%. Data indicate on complicated ethnical formation of modern Ukrainian population, where assimilation processes and inter-ethnic interactions played considerable role. They will be important additions in context about polymorphism of European populations mtDNA.

A GLIMPSE AT THE FRENCH mtDNA GENETIC POOL

Pennarun E et al.

In the coverage of the genetic pool of Europe, some major cavities were left, hence to fill one of them, namely the French mtDNA pool we collected 868 samples from twelve different locations of France. Those samples were sequenced for the hypervariable segment I (HVS-I) and then typed for SNPs in the coding region, either by RFLP or 5' nuclease allelic discrimination, in order to assign them to the right haplogroup. Then the mtDNA gene pools of French Basques and Bretons were compared in terms of frequency and composition with relevant neighbouring populations. The French Basques’ mtDNA pool shares some common cardinal features with that of the Spanish Basques, represented in the high prevalence of haplogroup H. However, the French Basques do show a number of distinct features, most notably expressed in the much higher frequency of haplogroups linked with the Neolithic diffusion in Europe. In Brittany, Finistère shows closer affinities with Britain and Scandinavia than the two other departments of Brittany. The mtDNA haplogroup composition of the French does not differ significantly from the surrounding European genetic landscape. In a finer grain, microgeographical differentiation can be revealed as shown for the French Basque country and for Brittany.

CULTURAL AND GENETIC DIVERSITY IN CENTRAL ANATOLIA: A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE

Gokcumen O et al.

Anatolia has been an important crossroads for numerous populations since the Neolithic. Among these, the Hattis, Urartians, Lydians, Phyrigians and Ottomans emerged in Anatolia proper. In addition, although non-Anatolian in origin, the Hittites, Greeks, Romans and Byzantines influenced and were influenced by local Anatolian cultures. These dynamics, as well as more recent events, such as the Turco-Ottoman War of late 19th century, the reconfiguration of the populations of the Ottoman Empire and the Greek- Turkish population exchange of 1920s, have made Anatolia a culturally and genetically complex region. Despite this complex history, Anatolia has been often been viewed as a uniform cultural landscape. Working from this perspective, previous studies of genetic variation in Anatolia analyzed samples from Turkish populations obtained from mostly urban hospitals or universities. Such studies not only overlooked the regional variation within Anatolia, but also treated contemporary Turkish populations as the direct representatives of Medieval and Neolithic Anatolian populations. To address these problems, we collected ~125 samples and extensive ethnographic data from a location in Central Anatolia southeast of Ankara. The samples were analyzed for mtDNA and NRY diversity, and the resulting data compared with those from previous genetic analyses of Turkish populations. We observed that several ethnic and cultural groups having different population histories co-existed in this location. This pattern likely represents the typical picture of Anatolian variation. We are using our genetic data to help us clarify these distinct population histories in greater detail.

"Celts" in Xinjiang

PhDiva criticizes a despicable Independent article titled "A meeting of civilisations: The mystery of China's celtic mummies". As I noted in a discussion list:

There is no evidence that the Urumqi mummies spoke Celtic languages, or that they were Europeans, or even Indo-Europeans. The DNA evidence can only be used to show that they were of West Eurasian, not European origin. As for their language, none of them have been accompanied, as far as I know, by any writings. It is reasonable that they might have spoken an Indo-European language, although by no means proven.

It is a sad state of affairs that editors allow such misleading information to be published.

One of the many idiotic statements in the article:

The Loulan Beauty, for example, was claimed by the Uighurs as their symbol in song and image, although genetic testing now shows that she was in fact European.

The "Loulan Beauty" may be one of the ancestors of the Uighurs, and she certainly belongs to the archaeological heritage of the region. Thus, it is reasonable and understandable that she will be made a symbol by the current inhabitants, however tenuous the connection.

Even the Slavs of Bulgaria identify with the ancient Thracians, the Turks identify with the Hittites and other extinct Anatolians, the Arabs of Egypt identify with the Egyptians, and the modern Germanic-speaking Britons identify with the "Celts". Such sentiments are understandable, albeit naive.

What is not excusable is to excise a part of Central Asian history and claim that it belongs to Europeans, or even more absurdly to Celts. However, we should perhaps excuse the journalist for his misstep, since he lives in a country where even professional geneticists have consistently oversold their research to a credulous public ready to swallow up stories about "Viking", "Celtic", or "Pictish" origins.

Some more random (?) facts

A sequel to the previous post, with some more random (?) facts.

"The Lycians are in good truth anciently from Crete; which island, in former days, was wholly peopled with barbarians. A quarrel arising there between the two sons of Europa, Sarpedon and Minos, as to which of them should be king, Minos, whose party prevailed, drove Sarpedon and his followers into banishment. The exiles sailed to Asia, and landed on the Milyan territory. Milyas was the ancient name of the country now inhabited by the Lycians: the Milyae of the present day were, in those times, called Solymi. So long as Sarpedon reigned, his followers kept the name which they brought with them from Crete, and were called Termilae, as the Lycians still are by those who live in their neighbourhood. But after Lycus, the son of Pandion, banished from Athens by his brother Aegeus had found a refuge with Sarpedon in the country of these Termilae, they came, in course of time, to be called from him Lycians. Their customs are partly Cretan, partly Carian. They have, however, one singular custom in which they differ from every other nation in the world. They take the mother's and not the father's name. Ask a Lycian who he is, and he answers by giving his own name, that of his mother, and so on in the female line. Moreover, if a free woman marry a man who is a slave, their children are full citizens; but if a free man marry a foreign woman, or live with a concubine, even though he be the first person in the State, the children forfeit all the rights of citizenship."
Herodotus, Histories, 1.173

"Lycian, a language of SW Anatolia for which there are written records dated from about the 5th to 4th cent. B.C., may have been a continuation of Luwian."
Anatolian Languages in The Columbia Encyclopedia

"As in the Bronze Age syllabary more certainly evolved for the recording of Luvian, the so-called Hittite hieroglyphs, the sound values of the Linear A signary seem designed to represent exactly the Luvian phonetic system having 3 long vowels, 3 short. And like its Anatolian counterpart, where certain of the syllabograms demonstrably match the sound of the first syllable in Luvian of the object that inspired its sign-shapes, the Linear A signary too would appear to have been built on the acrophonic principle. So far, some three dozen matches between Ventris' Linear B sound values (slightly altered to reflect the Greek 5-vowel system) and the Luvian name for the object often still identifiable in the Linear A sign--e.g., AB40/L28: WI as in WIdula-, the Hittite (and likely Luvian) term for 'chariot box'."
Edwin L. Brown faculty page

On Genetic Palimpsests

Most of the genetic markers used in human phylogeographic studies have been dated to the prehistoric period, and the majority of them are of Upper Paleolithic origin.

Lately, subclades identified within some human lineages on the Y-chromosome have crossed the Neolithic barrier, and in even rarer cases, "signatures" of historical events, such as the dominance of the Mongols, the Manchu, or the Ui Neill.

As a result, most markers are suitable for examining events of human prehistory, and not of historical ethnic groups.

Of course, scientists have tried to apply genetic information to historical processes, e.g., in the case of Jewish origins, but it turns out that the "Jewish gene" or Cohen Modal Haplotype actually turns out to to be much older and not particularly Jewish after all.

Even with old markers, it is still possible to reason about historical events. For example, the theories of white nationalist Arthur Kemp about the widespread prevalence of black African slavery in the classical world have been squarely defeated by the near-complete absence of Sub-Saharan African markers in the Italian and Balkan peninsulas. Similar theories propagated by Gustav Kossina and the Aryan-Nordic camp about the Northern European origin of the Indo-Europeans of India have similarly been defeated, since Indians completely lack haplogroup I chromosomes that are frequent in European Nordic populations.

So, even though the markers in question are very old (I is of Upper Paleolithic age), we can still reason historically with them.

Often, this historical reasoning can be shaky. For example, Spencer Wells has made tall claims about the Phoenicians, the Sea Peoples, and the Carthaginians in a National Geographic article which were based on the analysis of haplogroup J and E distribution in the Levant and North Africa.

For example, he found that there was little impact of Phoenicians on Carthage, but his conclusions are based on the paucity of haplogroup J in modern North African populations, who are a much broader-group than the socially and geographically constrained group of the ancient Carthaginians. Similar claims were made regarding the non-impact of the Sea Peoples in the Levant, but again, this is based on the similarity between coastal and non-coastal populations.
But, for all we know subdivisions of haplogroup J and other Near Eastern markers may differ between coastal and non-coastal populations, or perhaps, the Sea Peoples did initially affect the coastal peoples, but later their genes diffused into non-coastal populations, removing the distinctiveness of the two.

Let us take a further example of Sicily. The island of Sicily was colonized initially by farmers, and later by Greeks and Phoenicians. All three groups are believed to have contained some "Neolithic" markers, such as haplogroups J, E3b, and G, so any inferences about the relative contributions of the three groups are on very shaky ground.

For example, Semino et al. proposed that only 7% of Calabrian Y-chromosomes are of Greek with the assumption that J2a and E3b represent Anatolian and Greek lineages respectively. But, the frequency of E3b in modern Peloponnesians is not necessarily representative of its frequency in the very specific ancient city states and medieval Greek populations that colonized Southern Italy, and J2a may have arrived in Calabria either from Anatolia, e.g., during the Neolithic, or from Greece, during the age of colonization.

Things become even more complex when we turn to the Balkans or to Anatolia. For example, I playfully recounted some random facts about Phrygo-Armenians, but these hardly scratch the surface of the problem. Hittites, themselves either native or intrusive, were unseated by Phrygians, who were conquered by Persians, who were conquered by Macedonian Greeks, who were conquered by Romans, who were conquered by Turks. Not to mention the Galatians of Ancyra, or the ubuiquitous Armenians of the Byzantine Empire, or even the Jews of both the ancient and more recent origin, and of course the Turks themselves as well as imported Muslims from former provinces or vassals of the Ottoman Empire. And, of course, we should not forget that present-day Anatolians are only a subset of very recent Anatolians, several million of who were liquidated or deported following World War I.

These remarks underscore the near hopelessness of untangling historical patterns on the basis of phylogeography. Is there a way out?

Part of the solution will consist of performing huge studies with large sample sizes and very recently derived genetic markers, augmented by separate genome-wide autosomal clustering methods that may unmask latent genetic components that may be correlated with historical groups. Such studies will be very costly, even though the price of DNA testing is likely to go down, because ultimately the hard work of sample collection has to be done and paid for.

The ultimate solution, would be some significant progress in ancient DNA extraction. At present, mtDNA is the only game in town, and inferences from mtDNA are always up for grabs, due to the potential for contamination, uncertainties about selection, and of course the simple fact that ancient civilizations were largely patriarchal.

An even more exciting development would be the discovery -in modern human populations- of the genetics underlying common human variation in metric and morphological traits. Then, by examing ancient skeletal remains, we will be able to estimate the genetic identity of populations even if DNA cannot be directly observed.

The technical challenges are enormous, but -in my opinion- are not the main challenges at all. As hinted in Genetic vs. Mythical Origins, the study of the past forces us to question our ideas of descent and ethnicity. In the end, will it lead to an erosion of ethnic identity, or to its reinforcement along genetic and hence "objective" lines?

Some aspects of J2 distribution

Haplogroup J2 consists exclusively of two separate subclades: J2a-M410 and J2b-M12.

Crete, occupying the southmost of the Greek world has an M12/M172 ratio of 2.2% [1]. This ratio is 20% [1] or 42.2% [2], a weighted average of 26%. In Northern Greece (Macedonia) it is 43.2% [2].

In Albania, the same ratio is 100% in the small sample of [1] and 54.6% as reported by [2], a weighted average of 55%.

In Bulgaria, the ratio is 28.6% [1] and in Romania, the ratio is 0% in the good sample of [1]. In the Ukraine it is 32.9% [2]

According to [3], the ratio is high in Serbs (66.3%). The few Croatians and Herzegovinians belonging in haplogroup J2 belong to the M12 clade, giving a ratio of 100% [2,3]. Similarly in Poland (100%) [2], and Czech Republic/Slovakia (50%) [1].

The distinction between the Western and Eastern Balkans that I have spoken of before is clear in this regard. M12 clade comprises the majority of J2 in the West and the minority in the East. Moreover, Slavic speakers of continental Europe belong more to the M12 clade, whereas those bordering Black Sea are more inclined to have a low frequency of M12, including the non-Slavic Romanians who lack M12 altogether. In historical times, the Balkans were inhabited by several Indo-European peoples which could be classified in the macro-groups of Illyrians (west) and Thracians (east). Greek trade and settlement occurred in both the Adriatic and the Black Sea, but the Greek presence was probably heavier and more long-lasting (until recent times) in the latter region.

Italy resembles the Greek-Black Sea area. Southern Italy has a ratio of 12.4%, while Northern Italy has a ratio of 25% [1]. North-Central Italy (35.7%), and two Calabrian samples (1%), and Sicily (0%). The latter two locations were Greek speaking for the major part of their recorded history.

Turkey resembles the Greek-Black Sea-South Italian area with an overall ratio of 7.1% [4]. Turkey was primarily Greek, Armenian and Kurdish speaking before the arrival of the Altaic-speaking Turks. Before that, it was also home to a variety of languages, including several extinct languages of the Indo-European family such as Hittite, Luvian, Palaic, Lydian, Lycian, Phrygian, and Celtic.

[1] Di Giacomo (2004)
[2] Semino (2004)
[3] Pericic (2006)
[4] Cinnioglu (2004)

Some random (?) facts

"The Phrygians had an equipment very like that of the Paphlagonians with some slight difference. Now the Phrygians, as the Macedonians say, used to be called Brigians during the time that they were natives of Europe and dwelt with the Macedonians; but after they had changed into Asia, with their country they changed also their name and were called Phrygians. The Armenians were armed just like the Phrygians, being settlers from the Phrygians. Of these two together the commander was Artochmes, who was married to a daughter of Dareios." Herodotus, vii, 73

"Phrygia is the Greek name of an ancient state in western-central Anatolia (modern Turkey), extending from the Eskishehir area east to (perhaps) Bogazköy and Alishar Hüyük within the Halys River bend. The Assyrians, a powerful state in northern Mesopotamia to the south, called the state Mushki; what its own people called it is unknown. We know from their inscriptions that the Phrygians spoke an Indo-European language. Judging from historical records supported by ceramic evidence, settlers migrating from the Balkans in Europe first settled here a hundred or more years following the destruction of the Hittite empire (ca. 1200 BC)." The Metropolitan Museum of Art: 'Phrygia, Gordion, and King Midas in the Late Eighth Century B.C.'

"There is evidence that in ancient times a distinct subfamily of Indo-European languages existed that is now called Thraco-Phrygian. To it belonged Phrygian (an ancient and now extinct Indo-European language of Anatolia) and Thracian (a now dead Indo-European tongue of the Balkans in antiquity). Modern Armenian may well be a direct descendant of Phrygian." The Columbia Encyclopedia: 'Armenian language'

"All the unrooted trees agree that there are four supergroups of IE languages (Balto-Slavonic, Romano-Germano-Celtic, Armenian-Greek, and Indo-Iranian)" Rexova K. (2003) Cladistic analysis of languages: Indo-European classification based on lexicostatistical data, Cladistics 19(2)

Interpolated map of haplogroup J2a frequency. Extracted from Sengupta et al. (in press).



Ancient Phrygia, map extracted from Ancient Anatolia web site.